Current El Nino status.(good news)

The following Article indicates that as of August this year the negative effects of the El Nino may have retreated to normal.

"August 2019 El Niño Update: Stick a fork in it

Author: 

Nat Johnson

August 8, 2019

The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Near-average conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that we have returned to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña is present). Forecasters continue to favor ENSO-neutral (50-55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

What’s on our plate?

The July Niño3.4 index, our primary index for monitoring ENSO, was 0.4°C above the long-term average, falling below the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C for the first time since last September. In addition, tropical atmospheric conditions have trended toward neutral, as the cloudiness and rainfall over the Pacific were near average over the past month. The trade winds also have been near average lately, indicating that Walker circulation, which weakens during El Niño, has shown signs of rebounding.

Monthly sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for 2018–19 (purple line) and all other El Niño years since 1950. Climate.gov graph based on ERSSTv5 temperature data.

                                                         
Based on these latest indicators from the tropical ocean and atmosphere, NOAA forecasters have declared that El Niño has ended and neutral conditions have returned. Does a return to neutral mean that average weather conditions are expected to prevail around the globe? As Michelle pointed out a couple years ago, the answer is an emphatic NO.  A return to neutral means that we will not get that predictable influence from El Niño or La Niña, but the atmosphere is certainly capable of wild swings without a push from either influence.  Basically, ENSO-neutral means that the job of seasonal forecasters gets a bit tougher because we do not have that ENSO influence that we potentially can predict several months in advance (in a probabilistic form).        
A change to neutral could also impact the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically ramps up this time of year and peaks in early-to-mid September.  El Niño tends to produce hostile conditions for Atlantic hurricanes, as explained more thoroughly in Dr. Phil Klotzbach’s guest post, so a return to neutral means  that we will not get a decisive push from El Niño to the Atlantic.  The updated NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is now available, so be sure to check how these changing ENSO conditions and other drivers are impacting the Atlantic hurricane season. 

Sea surface temperature from June 1 through July 27, 2019. The region of cool water in the tropical eastern Pacific, called the eastern Pacific cold tongue, is clearly visible along the Equator, surrounded by warmer waters to the north and south. The wavy features along the northern and southern borders between the cold tongue and the warmer waters are tropical instability waves. The waves on the north side are clearer in part due to the stronger temperature gradient on that side of the cold tongue. Map by NOAA Climate.gov from CDR data.

And just to drive home that ENSO-neutral doesn’t necessarily mean “bland and boring,” a closer look at the weekly ocean surface temperature reveals some fascinating, wavy features over the eastern Pacific. Emily discussed these interesting features, called tropical instability waves, a few years ago. These waves can produce some dramatic week-to-week swings in the Niño3.4 index, but their effects tend to get washed out in the monthly and seasonally averaged index. That doesn’t mean that these waves cannot impact ENSO – check out Emily’s post to find out more!

What’s on the menu?

Will ENSO-neutral conditions continue through fall and winter? Similar to last month, most of the computer models we consult predict that the ocean surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region will remain near average throughout this period. NOAA forecasters favor this outcome, predicting a 50-55% chance of neutral conditions remaining through winter."

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Something Quite Different from Australia

One of Sydney's most popular radio stations, 2GB, interviewed Dick Smith who is a very successful businessman, on the issue of immigration in Australia.
Allan Jones who is one of 2GB's most listened to talkback hosts interviewed Dick Smith on this issue of continued immigration and it's impact on major city development.

This interview "says it as it is" and is worth the 15 minutes it takes to listen.
The discussion was recorded as a podcast and can be directly accessed by clicking here.  (It does take a while to load)

Other podcasts and listen live can be reached by going to the website 2GB.com

This is a shift from the norm on the site and we would like some feedback. It might be interesting to create an additional page that has occasional stories from both New Zealand and Australia.

Message recently received from Pam von Auloch

This story relates to a presentation by scholars from Glenwood Boys High who took on a project researching WW1 Rugby players who lost their lives.

"Last night I attended a Moths meeting which was followed by an excellent presentation by three Glenwood High boys about the Rugby WW1 players who lost their lives.

They have done all the research themselves together with their History Teacher who gave them this project when they found out that during the first WW there were several soldiers that were Natal Rugby players and so they set out to find out more about the 44 who lost their lives. it was so interesting to see the young men with all the old “toppies” and myself, the only woman present. I went for the evening because of the invitation I received and also out of curiosity due to my great grandfather being in the Boer war and he lost a son in the 2nd WW. My grandfather served in the 1st WW, my father served in the second WW in France and Dunkirk. My father in law (German) served for Germany in Russia and had finger shot off which sent him back, lucky for him in that way when you know what happened to thousands of others. My nephew serves in the Australian Air Force as a fighter pilot (Iran and Iraq) plus he is a bomb disposal expert and is at present in Hawaii teaching a course for the Americans. So you could say we are a fighting family in one way or another although the only one who enlisted is my nephew all the others were conscripted. At present my nephew is researching family history in order to claim medals from my father and grandfather who decided at the time not to claim them, for whatever reason.

Roland, I would appreciate it if you could send me details of the History teacher and how to get hold of him as I think it would be interesting for my club the ANZA Australian and new Zealand Assoc. to hear what they have to say. Needless to say our members have either children in Oz and NZ or relatives, or who have lived there or are actually nationals but live here, in other words they have a connection to the countries.

With Aussie and Kiwi troops being active in WW1 and celebrate that fact on ANZAC Day (a public holiday in OZ and NZ) April 25th. it is respected here and we have our own ceremony at NMR every year on April 25th with a dinner afterwards. Roland should you wish or any of the other Moths wish to attend please forward your email details to Gina our secretary so that she can keep you in the loop regarding our activities.

thanks for a nice evening.

regards

Pam"

Here are a few images taken at the presentation (click to enlarge)

Images can be seen at Picasa

These pictures were sent with Picasa, from Google.
Try it out here: http://picasa.google.com/

AGM 2015 (continued)

Sunday's AGM was something special. Our 80th anniversary. It was held at the Royal Durban Yacht Club on the edge of the harbour. We have had our AGM here for several successive years and the buffet lunch has been something very special.

The meeting ran smoothly and there were no nominations other than existing members and as such no change though Chris Wilson has resigned due to his imminent departure to New Zealand.

Chris was our last President who really worked hard to help make ANZA such a great place to hang out in Durban.

We wish Chris and Pippa a safe trip and the very best for their future in the Land of the Long White Cloud.

Every year ANZA donates funds to a charity that is chosen out of a short list of possible recipients.

This year the committee chose the Durban branch of CHOC.
Special Guests today were Bobby Freeman( Regimental Sergeant  Major, Natal Mounted rifles and his wife Pat  and Agie Govender, Regional Manager of CHOC.

Newsletter for September / October can be found under NEWSLETTERS

The latest newsletter contains lots of useful information about ANZA, past events and upcoming events. This year represents 80 years since inauguration. To our best knowledge only Canada matches this time span.

It would be great if many younger potential members were to join and expand the range of events to give us a broader appeal to all eligible members in KwaZulu-Natal.

At R60-00 per year membership you can't really afford not being a member.

For further information contact any committee member below.

President - Andy Tribe 031 262 6819(h) /  073 808 9986
Chairman - Eleanor Brosnihan 031 564 6632 / 072 156 6097
Deputy Chairman - Jane Murray 031 209 6408/ 082 454 6888
Treasurer - Allan van Dyk 031 563 7204 / 083 737 9209
Secretary - Glenda Dee 031 262 2358 / 078 174 2529
Scribe - Geoff/Gina Marder 031 764 5949 / 083 269 1691
Honary Strategic Planner - David  Brosnihan  031 031 314 4500 / 083 309 6597
Robyn Geisler 031 7657212 / 082 925 5690
Cheryl an Dyk 031 5637204 / 083 737 9209
Pam von Aulock  031 262 9162 / 087 334 9863
Tish Adams: 031 563 5031 / 079 254 0512

ANZAC Day 25th April 2015

Please note that this event starts off with a Commemorative Service and Wreath laying at Natal Mounted Rifles Headquarters @ 18h00 sharp(Central Africa Time).
This will be followed by a dinner .

Attendance at the Commemorative Service and Wreath laying is open though bookings for the dinner are closed.

- Daily News 24 April 2015

ANZAC Memorial plaque

The Australia and New Zealand Association in KwaZulu-Natal was granted permission to fix a memorial plaque honoring the ANZAC's on NMR's Memorial Wall.

Being the 100th Anniversary of ANZAC Day it is fitting to acknowledge that Turkey has done an exceptional job in maintaining all the relevant memorial sites and cemeteries relating to this event.
Due to the large numbers wishing to attend the dawn service at Gallipoli both Australia and New Zealand had to hold a ballot to keep the numbers manageable. Thousands who were not lucky in the ballot chose to go anyway and will be visiting the various sites pertaining to the memorable event.

"18 pounder" refurbished

The gun
1. The 18 pounder gun with six horses  will lead the ANZAC Day ceremony at the National War Memorial in Canberra this coming Saturday. Submitted by Rory.

2. This gun had a rapid fire system allowing it to fire 18lb shells at a phenomenal rate.
It was totally refurbished over several years and was towed by 6 horses at this years ANZAC march to the National War Memorial in Canberra this year.

__________________________________________________________________
Recently found:
Six short videos in mp4 format, from a New Zealand perspective, that give a graphic understanding of the Gallipoli campaign's.what, why, when and how.
      
Videos     From this link you have access to a sequence of 6 videos
___________________________________________________________________

Natal Mounted Rifles
 As an aside you can visit an article giving some background to the Natal Mounted Rifles Durban formation and current status by following the link to an article from the South African Military History Association...

For anyone wishing to research further the following link is a good starting point, ..

Feedback on the Christchurch Earthquake Appeal

A link has been added to the links in the left margin.  It leads to a Facebook page and even if you don't have a Facebook ID you can still read all on this site.

Roy Faulkes Bursary

Tomorrow , 17th March 2015, Jane Murray, deputy chairman of ANZA will once again present the annual Roy Faulkes bursary to Delice Sifa BAOMBWA the selected recipient.
 

Last years event as copied from the George Campbell School archives.

Roy Faulkes Bursary 2014

By: Administrator Category: Awards, School News February 19, 2014

Congratulations to Shane Ndlovu, (Grade 9A), who has been awarded the Roy Faulkes Bursary for 2014, by the Australian and New Zealand Association. This bursary is awarded on the basis of Academic and earnest endeavours during his Grade 8 year.

Representing ANZA, 2nd from left, Deputy Chairman and 2nd from right Committee member Cheryl van Dyk the grand daughter of Roy Faulkes.

The February 2015 Function Celebrating Australia Day (26 January) and Waitangi Day (6th February)

Dave Brosihan at work

Today the Australia and New Zealand Association celebrated both Waitangi Day and Australia
Day at the Northlands Bowling Club in Durban with a Spit Braai (BBQ). At this function there were short talks on the history of both these special days.

The historical information was gleaned for the most part from the following two links:

   It is noted that both these days have experienced some degree of controversy over time.

At both of these linked sites one can read the information by clicking onto a chronological list of headings.

The next scheduled function will be a wreath laying memorial event celebrating the 100th Anniversary of ANZAC Day, 25th April 2015 at the Natal Mounted Rifles (NMR) Headquarters in Durban followed by dinner at the NMR 

Newsletter for November/December 2014

The latest Newsletter for November and December can be read from the "Newsletters" Menu

It has been mentioned from our Editor Gina Marder:
:
"I would like everyone to make a special effort to join us at this function, which will be the last one Chris Wilson, as our President, will preside over. Very sad news for ANZA."

Beerfest compilation

Beerfest Charity Event
The most recent event was the October Beerfest and by all accounts it was a very enjoyable and profitable event. It is after all the major fund raising event and a worthy beneficiary will receive a donation at the AGM. The image was submitted by Pam von Aulock from the ANZA committee. There are further images as well as more details in the  in the November 2014 newsletter. more details in the




  Kindred Society Quiz Night
The event prior to the Beerfest was the Kindred Society Quiz Night where several social  teams compete against each other. The following feedback submitted by Pam von Aulock is gratefully received

"Hi ANZA Committee and ANZA Quiz team tonight, sorry last night now,

What a good night we had.

6 teams with lots of people.

To be noticed:- no MENSA team. A couple have moved to the south coast and can’t drive up any more.....not sure where the others were.

Everything worked perfectly with Simon doing a sterling job with the questions and making it very entertaining at the same time and Kraft doing the scoring.

ANZA had a good turn out on the night and we fielded two teams, A and B.

The A team was four people and the B team was 6.

Final results were

BCHA 143

BCHA 131

Callies 124

ANZA A 122 and a half

ANZA B 114

1820 Settlers 97

Break down done by Mike on the Stats were as follows:-

as various teams had 7 and 6 members and some only 4

BCHA 143 = 7 people = 20.5 points per member

BCHA 131 = 5 people = 26 points per member

Callies 124 = 5 people = 25 points per member

ANZA A team 122 = 4 people (Mike, Erik, Stuart and Pam) 30.5 points per member

ANZA B team 114 = 6 people (Marders plus four friends) 18 points per member

1820’s 96= 4 people = 24 points per member

therefore ANZA A team were top on the night, thanks Mike for working that out.

ORTHORHINOLARYNGOLOGIST?? work that one out, we got it right!

It was a great night and we sadly missed Bob and Rob Curtis who now both live in OZ, they would have put us right up there if they were still in Durban.....

Cheers

Pam"

Latest Newsletter July/August 2014

Latest Newsletter available - view from the "NEWSLETTER" Menu. If you would like to comment anonymously or otherwise simply click on Comments below.

Newsletters & Info.

The latest newsletter for March/April is available online and can be found on the "Latest Newsletters" page.

I for one am pleased to see that there is a Hangi scheduled for October as well as other events that have always been popular.

This Blog
The purpose of having this Internet presence is to encourage interested members and friends to receive relevant information and news. Please if you have anything of interest to say or comment on please submit by adding a comment  to any posting or by using the contact us form.  Any feedback coming from the "Contact ANZA-KZN" automatically goes to the committee and subject to the content will be posted.

For spontaneous comments you can click on "comments" at the end of any posting, have your say and do so anonymously if you prefer.

If you would like to be notified whenever there is new content please join as a follower.
If you would like to contribute to the contentplease use the Contact Us form and request permission.

We would welcome content from members living overseas or other provinces who could give us feedback from overseas.

Submitted by
Andy Tribe

Special Event

Lamb on a Spit Sunday 3rd February 2013 - See Latest Newsletters for details

AGM

The November 2012 Newsletter has been published and the details of the AGM have been provided. The AGM is followed by a Sunday Carvery.

See details from the "Latest Newsletters" tab above.